ABN AMRO expects cautious growth in most subsectors of the leisure sector, but uncertainty will persist this year and unrest in the sector will persist. Hotels and holiday parks are facing an increase in VAT on overnight stays, putting pressure on volumes. At the same time, there are also positive aspects: tourism continues to grow slightly and purchasing power appears to be improving slightly, offering opportunities for the sector. This and more is evident from ABN AMRO's new Leisure sector forecast.
Key points
- Significant volume growth is expected this year, particularly for the travel industry (+6%). However, the number of overnight stays in hotels (-2%), holiday parks (-1%), and campsites (0%) is declining, mainly due to the VAT increase on overnight stays.
- After a lean year, higher growth figures are on the horizon for restaurants (+2%), cafes (+1%), fast food (+1,5%), delivery (+1%), and caterers (+1,5%). These sectors have seen the biggest price increases and will benefit from higher consumer spending in 2026.
The recreational sectors show a mixed picture: the number of cinema visitors is shrinking (-3%) due to structural changes in viewing behaviour, while the number of visitors to amusement parks and zoos is expected to increase by 1,5 percent.
VAT increase affects part of the sector
However, the unrest in the sector hasn't completely subsided. Since January 1st, the VAT rate on accommodation has increased from 9 to 21 percent. The effects of this increase are still uncertain. For example, it remains to be seen to what extent accommodations will pass on the VAT increase, whether and how many domestic and Dutch tourists will book fewer overnight stays when a price increase occurs, and whether they will increasingly choose foreign alternatives. This makes it difficult to estimate volume growth in the affected subsectors again this year.
Debt burden and passing on costs
Besides uncertainty about the consequences of the VAT increase for parts of the leisure sector, a large proportion of entrepreneurs have substantial debt. This debt often accumulated during the coronavirus pandemic and could only be repaid at a very slow pace last year due to rising costs and thus shrinking margins. Last November, one in five hospitality entrepreneurs indicated in the economic survey conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) that their debt was problematic. A higher proportion indicated that this debt had increased in the past year than those that had decreased: 7,4 percent compared to 5,7 percent. In the culture, sports, and recreation subsectors, one in eight businesses has problematic debt.
The economic survey from January of this year reveals that debt reduction is difficult. Approximately 58 percent of hospitality entrepreneurs indicate that they can only partially or not at all pass on the increased costs. Margins are therefore under pressure, leaving less room for debt repayment.
We highlight some sectors:
Holiday parks
ABN AMRO expects the number of overnight stays at holiday parks to decline by approximately 1 percent next year, following growth of 1,5 percent last year. This expected decline is due to the VAT increase on overnight stays. This increase leads to higher prices for overnight stays at holiday parks and puts pressure on demand. At the same time, competition from campsites is increasing. Due to downtrading, consumers are increasingly opting for cheaper accommodation alternatives, with campsites continuing to improve in quality and thus becoming an increasingly attractive substitute.
These negative factors are offset by an expected increase in purchasing power, which could support demand for holiday parks, particularly in the mid-range and higher-end segments. The outlook for consumer spending is also positive for Germany, the Netherlands' most important tourist destination, which accounts for 20 percent of overnight stays by foreigners.
Finally, the increased tourist tax, averaging approximately 9 percent, could also impact holiday parks, although we expect this to be limited. Tourist tax rates vary significantly by municipality, meaning the effects will be different across the country. Furthermore, the tourist tax is often not something guests consider when researching their holiday destination.
Campsites
Historically, campsites in the Netherlands have experienced very limited growth and are highly sensitive to weather conditions. After a significant decline in 2024, the sector will see a 2,2 percent increase in overnight stays in 2025. The Netherlands was much drier in 2025 than in 2024, which significantly boosted the number of overnight stays. ABN AMRO expects growth in the number of overnight stays to stabilize by 2026. Campsites are increasingly offering permanent accommodations, such as safari tents, yurts, and mobile homes; these are also subject to the increased VAT rate. This could lead to a decrease in the number of overnight stays at campsites. On the other hand, there is also a positive incentive when holidaymakers downsize and choose a campsite instead of a holiday at a holiday park.
Campsites can also benefit from the rising popularity of campervans and caravans in the Netherlands. Many seniors choose to travel with a caravan or campervan because it allows them to travel flexibly and enjoy the comfort of their own facilities. With a campervan or caravan, seniors can enjoy the outdoors longer and more often, even outside the peak season.
Hotels
Last year, the number of overnight stays rose by 1,5 percent, despite a 3,5 percent decline in business overnight stays. The hotel industry has thus benefited greatly from the influx of tourists. However, growth in overnight stays has fallen to its lowest level in the last 10 years, excluding the coronavirus pandemic. ABN AMRO expects a decline of approximately two percent in overnight stays this year. This decline marks a turning point after a period of growth and is caused by an increase in VAT on overnight stays.
The Netherlands Board of Tourism & Conventions (NBTC) expects the number of tourists to grow very slightly by half a percent this year. Combined with our expectation that guests will, on average, opt for shorter stays due to higher room rates resulting from the VAT increase, there is a significant chance that the number of overnight stays will decline. The September 2025 Hosta report from market research firm Horwath-htl confirms this. Most large hotel groups expect their occupancy rates to remain the same or decline slightly. At the same time, 17 percent of hotels indicate they expect a decline of more than 10 percent, indicating significant differences in market development between hotels and segments.
The outlook on revenue is also mixed. The higher VAT on overnight stays is depressing demand and regularly prompting hotels to lower their room rates. Downtrading is also putting pressure on revenue: guests are increasingly opting for cheaper accommodations or lower room categories. Furthermore, the tourist tax is rising by an average of approximately 9 percent, further depressing demand, although we expect the effect to be limited. This is partly because Amsterdam continues to benefit from strong international demand; tourists from Asia and the US are less sensitive to price increases. The NBTC even expects growth in the number of guests from those regions.
The biggest challenges for 2026 lie in costs and margins. While sentiment among hoteliers is generally positive to neutral, there are clear concerns about profitability. The VAT increase is cited by 55 percent of respondents as a significant negative factor for margins, according to the Hotel Leaders Network & ABN AMRO survey 2026 from earlier this year. Furthermore, staff shortages and rising labor costs remain a significant burden (52 percent). Shorter stays and the continued decline of the business segment also pose a structural challenge.
Amusement parks and zoos
Consumers have returned to amusement parks and zoos since the coronavirus pandemic, although the recovery for zoos took longer, only exceeding 2019 levels in 2024. We expect visitor numbers to have risen by a further 2,5 percent in 2025, as both the number of tourists and purchasing power have increased, benefiting amusement parks and zoos. The weather was also favorable. This year, visitor growth is expected to continue at 1,5 percent, slightly slower than in recent years.
The expected delay is due in part to the slowdown in the growth of tourist arrivals. For amusement parks, one in five visitors comes from abroad, according to data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The weather can also influence the outcome.
Cinemas
Cinema attendance has been declining for several years in a row. In 2025, attendance fell by 3,5 percent. We expect this decline to continue in 2026, with a further decrease of 3 percent. Globally, cinema attendance has not returned to previous levels since the coronavirus pandemic. In many countries, recovery appears to be stalling, suggesting that structural changes in audience viewing behavior have occurred. The ongoing decline in cinema attendance is closely linked to increasing competition from streaming services. Consumers are increasingly choosing the convenience of watching movies at home, partly because new releases are becoming available online more quickly. This makes it more difficult for cinemas to attract audiences for regular screenings.
It's striking that small movie theaters are doing relatively better than large chains. This is because they focus their programming more on niche markets and specific target audiences. These include arthouse films, local productions, and movie marathons.
Museums
Final visitor numbers for 2025 are not yet known. Due in part to lower visitor numbers at the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam, the most visited museum in the Netherlands, we expect a small decline of 0,5 percent. This year, we anticipate a limited growth of 0,5 percent. A potential challenge this year is the shorter stays of foreign tourists, which could lead to fewer museum visits. Major Amsterdam museums appear to be less affected by this, as a significant proportion of their visitors are Asian and American tourists. The NBTC expects this group of tourists to continue to grow this year, and therefore, this group of museums will see little impact on visitor numbers from the decline in tourist overnight stays this year.
Museums are experiencing fluctuating visitor numbers, with the appeal of specific exhibitions playing a significant role in attracting international visitors. This makes the sector highly dependent on international offerings and the popularity of exhibitions. Furthermore, the number of museum card holders is steadily growing, creating a more stable base of domestic visitors.
Sectors also covered in the report are: Travel, Restaurants and Cafes, Fast Food and Delivery and Catering.
More information: Cautious growth in the leisure sector, uncertainty remains – ABN AMRO