When I give a workshop to owners, for example on creating an investment or marketing plan, or speak with a client, I often hear the same question: there is so much to consider, where do I start? What do I choose first? This year, that question is certainly justified. The sector is moving on multiple fronts simultaneously, and not every front is equally visible.
In one of my communities, this question came up recently: how different is it for you this season? Several members are struggling with far fewer bookings than before and are seeing significantly fewer Dutch campervan owners this season, for example. This is related to the motor vehicle tax: for campervans, it will change from a quarter rate to a half rate as of 2026, a doubling of annual costs for many models. For a panel van camper, this rises from approximately €258 to €516 per year, and for a full-size integrated motorhome from €319 to €638. Those who are hesitant to go touring because of this are booking shorter trips, later in the season, or closer to home. People are also choosing to suspend their registration more quickly, I read in various groups.
As of January 1, 2026, the VAT rate for many forms of accommodation, such as holiday homes, chalets, and other rental accommodations, was increased from 9% to 21%. Seven months later, HISWA-RECRON observes rental backlogs among professional landlords and a clear shift in booking behavior. German bookings are approximately 10% lower than last year, and in border regions, this can rise to 20%. Guests are booking for shorter periods and more frequently opting for the cheaper season.
At the same time, the Netherlands remains popular. Many holidaymakers still choose to holiday in their own country.
Contraction in one place, growth in another, fewer campers but more stay-at-homes, all within the same year. That is why occupancy alone says nothing about the future of your business. So, on what do you base your next decision?
Why occupation alone doesn't tell your story
You can run a full season and still lose margin. You can also achieve better results with lower occupancy, because costs, price, and spending do add up.
I see this reflected frequently in my clients' figures, but also in the past at my own campsite. There were seasons with nearly 100% occupancy, but at the end, we still ended up with less profit than the previous year. Extra cleaning, extra staff at reception, and a price that didn't keep pace with costs. Occupancy was good, but the bill didn't lie.
Four forces acting simultaneously
Alexander Osterwalder, creator of the Business Model Canvas, maps a company's environment using four forces. Every signal you encounter this year corresponds to one of the four. Recognize the force, and you will immediately know where to look for evidence.
For every four, I provide some examples aimed at the recreation industry.
Key trends
Guests are increasingly searching, comparing, and booking via AI. Those who do not adapt to this are less likely to be found. Climate is also part of this: heat, drought, and heavy rainfall are changing booking behavior, recreation styles, and your investments. The Climate Adaptation Knowledge Portal warns that these weather conditions have a direct impact on comfort, safety, and maintenance at recreational sites.
Industrial forces
Competition comes from multiple sides. Platforms, new providers, and other leisure activities are vying for the same guest. A competitor who invests now will change your starting position tomorrow.
Market forces
This is where you notice it first. Your German bookings for rental accommodations, for example, are dropping. You see fewer Dutch campervan owners. Bookings are coming in later than before. Your Saturday crowds are growing, while hospitality revenue per visitor is falling.
Four signals, the same power: guest behavior changes faster than your prices and offerings keep pace.
Macroeconomic forces
For many forms of accommodation, the VAT rate increased from 9% to 21% as of January 1, 2026. In practice, motor vehicle tax for campervans doubles. Energy, wages, and materials continue to rise in price. As a result, entrepreneurs are facing pressure on their competitive position and margins on multiple fronts simultaneously.
One-signal check
Four forces, moving simultaneously. Together, they determine whether the numbers add up for your season.
Where do you start? With a single signal.
Force yourself to these two sentences beforehand:
We notice this from: [concrete signal].
Before we change anything, we must first know: [the real question].
Two examples.
Are your German bookings for rental accommodations declining? Find out first: does price, discoverability, or proposition make the difference?
Is your Saturday traffic growing while hospitality revenue per visitor is falling? First, find out: where do visitors drop off, or where are they waiting?
Anyone who immediately offers a discount or undertakes renovations reduces margins before the real problem becomes clear. With rising costs, higher taxes, and changing guest behavior, this is particularly risky.
Why you cannot postpone this until January
Next season starts with the choices you make now: pricing, offering, investments, and priorities. VAT, road tax, climate, and search behavior move simultaneously. Waiting every quarter costs you margin.
Anyone who makes no changes this autumn may start next season with the same pressure on margins. That is precisely why now is the time to test choices against what is actually happening in the market.
How do you want to do business in a market that seems to be becoming increasingly unpredictable? How do you remain agile and flexible?
That is precisely where room for choices is created. Choices ultimately lead to a result every entrepreneur dreams of: more peace of mind, more control, and a business that continues to function even when the market changes.
Free webinars, September 1 and 2
You notice it sooner than your revenue shows. Bookings come in later. A competitor invests. Costs rise. Many signals at once, in no sequence.
On September 1 and 2, I will be hosting a free webinar for entrepreneurs and marketers in the overnight and day recreation sectors. In one hour, you will dissect the signals, following Osterwalder's four forces:
- Key trends
- Industrial forces
- Market forces
- Macroeconomic forces
Four forces, one company: yours.
You will discover:
- how to recognize signals in your own practice
- which strength each signal corresponds to
- which first question you need to answer this autumn before you invest, determine your rates, or adjust your marketing
Three times of your choice to join
- Tuesday, September 1 at 8:00 PM
- Tuesday, September 1 at 8:00 PM
- Wednesday, September 2 at 12:00
Each session is limited to 100 participants. It is also possible to receive a handout afterwards via this link.
Register: www.recreatiebeleving.nl/webinar-toekomst
Those who are involved start the season with well-founded choices. Those who wait start with a list of ideas.
With thanks to (sender of this message): Johanna Oosterbaan. She ran a campsite for ten years and subsequently guided more than 300 recreation entrepreneurs with her company Recreatiebeleving.nl .