The start of 2026 marks a major shift in the Dutch hotel sector. Due to the tax changes in the VAT rate from 9% to 21%, travelers' price sensitivity has increased dramatically. Analysis of the first weeks of 2026 by HotelSpecials shows that the Dutch hotel market is losing ground to neighboring countries, where stable rates in Germany and Belgium ensure a strong competitive position.
The first two weeks of January paint a crystal-clear picture: Dutch travelers' price sensitivity has reached a record high. While the desire to get away remains undiminished, the destination has changed dramatically.
The Netherlands is losing ground, tax benefits from neighboring countries are attracting travelers away
The most striking trend is the so-called "tax optimization." Because prices in the Netherlands are rising while VAT remains low in Germany (7%) and Belgium (6%), more and more travelers are choosing a destination just across the border for an overnight stay.
The figures confirm a drastic shift: the Netherlands is pricing itself out of the market, while Germany is stealing market share.
- The Netherlands is losing ground: Due to the VAT shock, domestic bookings fell by 20,5%. Foreign demand also declined sharply: Belgium (-38%) and Germany (-30%).
- Germany wins: Germany's share as a destination rose sharply, from 5% to over 20%.
- Belgian shift: Belgian travellers avoid the Netherlands (-8,6% market share) and more often choose Belgium or Germany.
- Towns: While Maastricht and The Hague topped the list last year, foreign cities are making a strong entrance. Demand for Düsseldorf (+135,6%) and Ghent (+120%) has skyrocketed.
Shift in the hotel market: the region is moving away
The start of the year marks a period of correction in the hotel sector. Not only is the national VAT increase affecting the sector, but in many major cities, tourist taxes have also been raised further as of January 1st. This "double hit" is causing a significant drop in domestic bookings. Travelers who do stay in the Netherlands are more likely to move to "smaller cities" like Zutphen and Delft, where the overall price pressure is lower than in the Randstad.
Early booking reflex: consumers are already setting prices for the end of 2026
Strikingly, the price increase isn't just leading to cancellations, but also to an extreme form of forward planning. Consumers seem to be responding to the "VAT shock" by securing prices for the distant future. While the number of bookings for December at the beginning of last year was negligible (less than one percent), HotelSpecials is already seeing an explosive increase for December 2026, accounting for almost half of all bookings. This enormous growth suggests that travelers are no longer waiting for last-minute deals, but are booking their stays for the Christmas and New Year's holidays of 2026 now to avoid further inflation or price increases.
Forecast for 2026: Creativity wins over price increases
Despite the higher costs, the Dutch remain a travel-loving nation. HotelSpecials expects the market to adapt further this year. Hotels that focus on unique packages and competitive pricing will be the winners in 2026. While the VAT shock is causing a temporary dip in domestic volumes, it is simultaneously stimulating a new, smarter way of traveling where the border is less of a barrier than ever before. Despite the higher costs, the Dutch remain a travel-loving nation. HotelSpecials expects the market to adapt further this year. Hotels that focus on unique packages and competitive pricing will be the winners in 2026. While the VAT shock is causing a temporary dip in domestic volumes, it is simultaneously stimulating a new, smarter way of traveling where the border is less of a barrier than ever before.
The VAT increase applies not only to hotels, but also to other accommodation options such as holiday parks, group accommodations and B&Bs.
More information: www.hotelspecials.nl